Predictive Feature Engineering for Stress Detection using Physiological Signals, A Comparative Study

This paper presents a two-stage pipeline for implicit feature engineering in time series-based physiological stress detection using electrodermal activity (EDA) signals. In the first stage, we forecast three descriptive statistics of future EDA signals over short horizons (3, 5, and 10 seconds) based on a 60-second context window. In the second stage, a lightweight linear classifier detects stress from these predicted statistics. We evaluate three forecasting architectures spanning the domain expertise spectrum: a domain-specific bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) recurrent neural network, zero-shot and fine-tuned variants of Amazon Chronos T5 time series foundation model, and the Tabular Prior-data Fitted Network (TabPFN) applied to engineered physiological features. Experiments on the publicly available Wearable Stress and Affect Detection (WESAD) dataset, comprising chest-worn multimodal physiological signals from 15 subjects under baseline and stress conditions, use subject-independent 5-fold cross-validation and show that the domain-specific BiLSTM and TabPFN achieve comparable classification performance, with mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.859-0.882 and 0.863-0.883 respectively. Both remain well ahead of the Chronos variants, which yield 0.629-0.777. Chronos models quickly reach performance saturation regardless of training depth, highlighting challenges in tokenizing continuous physiological time series. The proposed approach advances implicit feature engineering for wearable stress monitoring by leveraging forecasting as a powerful inductive bias, thereby improving robustness and providing insights into the limitations of the foundation model for physiological signals.