Simulation of foraging behavior using a decision-making agent with Bayesian and inverse Bayesian inference: Temporal correlations and power laws in displacement patterns

Abstract

It has been stated that in human migratory behavior, the step length series may have temporal correlation and that there is some relationship between this time dependency and the fact that the frequency distribution of step length follows a power-law distribution. Furthermore, the frequency of occurrence of the step length in some large marine organisms has been found to switch between power-law and exponential distributions, depending on the difficulty of prey acquisition. However, to date it has not been clarified how the aforementioned three phenomena arise: the positive correlation created in the step length series, the relation between the positive correlation of the step length series and the form of an individuals step length distribution, and the switching between power-law and exponential distributions depending on the abundance of prey. This study simulated foraging behavior using the Bayesian decision-making agent simultaneously performing both knowledge learning and knowledge-based inference to analyze how the aforementioned three phenomena arise. In the agent with learning and inference, past experiences were stored as hypotheses (knowledge) and they were used in current foraging behavior; at the same time, the hypothesis continued to be updated based on new experiences. The simulation results show that the agent with both learning and inference has a mechanism that simultaneously causes all the phenomena.