Hidden temporal structure of the ongoing task impacts detection strategy and is reflected in pupillary dynamics

Estimating temporal regularities in incoming sensory inputs supports optimal decisions in noisy environments. In particular, inferred temporal structure can ease the detection of likely target events. Here we postulated that timely urgency signals can adapt subjects decision-making to the ongoing task temporal structure, possibly through neuromodulatory tone. To test this hypothesis, we used an auditory change detection task in which targets followed a block-based temporal contingency, unbeknownst to participants. False alarm occurrences were driven by the distribution of target timings, indicating that participants adapted their behavior to the ongoing temporal structure. Task-evoked pupillary responses were larger for blocks with earliest target timings, and correlated with individual subjects behavioral adaptation. Individual pupil responses matched an urgency signal extracted from a decision model fitted to behavior. This work demonstrates that internal temporal expectation can be tracked through pupillary dynamics, suggesting a role of neuromodulatory systems in context-dependent modulation of decision variable dynamics.