Timing matters: phenological constraints and predation shape Arctic community structure

Abstract

Top-down and bottom-up controls of animal populations are key elements of niche and coexistence theories, but there is still little empirical evidence on how these forces determine species distribution and community assemblies. In Arctic ecosystems, spring snowmelt sets the timing and duration of the snow-free period, thereby controlling food availability, while predation often imposes additional constraints on prey species. The relative importance of these abiotic and biotic filters on distribution is also susceptible to vary with body size. Using 10 years of high-resolution data on all major members of an Arctic vertebrate community and their shared predator, we tested how snowmelt timing interacts with predation to shape species occurrence and community structure. Species occurrence declined with later snowmelt dates, with larger-bodied species being particularly constrained by short snow-free periods. Predation further modulated species occurrence, with responses varying according to body mass. Our findings highlight the combined influence of the phenology of food availability and predation as important filters shaping local community structure. Building on species contrasted responses, we propose a conceptual framework for how phenological constraints and predation jointly shape community assembly in highly seasonal environments.