Analysis of the Dynamics and Distribution of SARS-CoV-2 Mutations and its Possible Structural and Functional Implications

Abstract

After eight months of the pandemic declaration, COVID-19 has not been globally controlled. Several efforts to control SARS-CoV-2 dissemination are still running including vaccines and drug treatments. The effectiveness of these procedures depends, in part, that the regions to which these treatments are directed do not vary considerably. Although, it is known that the mutation rate of SARS-CoV-2 is relatively low it is necessary to monitor the adaptation and evolution of the virus in the different stages of the pandemic. Thus, identification, analysis of the dynamics, and possible functional and structural implication of mutations are relevant. Here, we first estimate the number of COVID-19 cases with a virus with a specific mutation and then calculate its global relative frequency (NRFp). Using this approach in a dataset of 100 924 genomes from GISAID, we identified 41 mutations to be present in viruses in an estimated number of 750 000 global COVID-19 cases (0.03 NRFp). We classified these mutations into three groups: high-frequent, low-frequent non-synonymous, and low-frequent synonymous. Analysis of the dynamics of these mutations by month and continent showed that high-frequent mutations appeared early in the pandemic, all are present in all continents and some of them are almost fixed in the global population. On the other hand, low-frequent mutations (non-synonymous and synonymous) appear late in the pandemic and seems to be at least partially continent-specific. This could be due to that high-frequent mutation appeared early when lockdown policies had not yet been applied and low-frequent mutations appeared after lockdown policies. Thus, preventing global dissemination of them. Finally, we present a brief structural and functional review of the analyzed ORFs and the possible implications of the 25 identified non-synonymous mutations.