Weight of evidence of Y-STR matches computed with the discrete Laplace method: Impact of adding a suspect's profile to a reference database

Abstract

The discrete Laplace method is recommended by multiple parties (including the International Society of Forensic Genetics, ISFG) to estimate the weight of evidence in criminal cases when a suspects Y-STR profile matches the crime scene Y-STR profile. Unfortunately, modelling the distribution Y-STR profiles in the database is time-consuming and requires expert knowledge. When the suspects Y-STR profile is added to the database, as would be the protocol in many cases, the discrete Laplace model must be recomputed. We found that the likelihood ratios with and without adding the suspects Y-STR profile were almost identical with 1,000 or more Y-STR profiles in the database for Y-STR profiles with 8, 12, and 17 loci. Thus, likelihood ratio calculations can be performed in seconds if a an established discrete Laplace model based on at least 1,000 Y-STR profiles is used. A match in a database with 17 Y-STR loci from at least 1,000 male individuals results in a likelihood ratio above 10,000 in approximately 94% of the cases, and above 100,000 in approximately 82% of the cases. We offer a freely available IT tool for estimating the discrete Laplace model of the STR profiles in a database and the likelihood ratio. HighlightsO_LIThe discrete Laplace method is suitable for estimating the weight of evidence of matches with 17 Y-STRs. C_LIO_LILRs based on the discrete Laplace method are 10-100 times higher (in median) than those based on Brenners{kappa} method. C_LIO_LIA database with 17 STRs from at least 1,000 males gives LRs of above 10,000 in approximately 94% of the cases and above 100,000 in approximately 82% of the cases with the discrete Laplace method. C_LIO_LIThe weight of evidence of a matching Y-STR profile is computed within seconds and easily documented when a precomputed discrete Laplace model is available (an IT tool is provided). C_LIO_LI50% of all Yfiler Plus matches are between male relatives within a genetic distance of five meioses. C_LI