Anthropogenic climate change will likely outpace coral range expansion

Abstract

Past coral range expansions suggest that high-latitude environments may serve as refugia, potentially buffering tropical biodiversity loss due to climate change. We explore this possibility for corals globally, using a dynamical metacommunity model incorporating temperature, light intensity, pH, and four distinct, interacting coral assemblages. This model reasonably reproduces the observed distribution and recent decline of corals across the Indo-Pacific and Caribbean. Our simulations suggest that there is a mismatch between the timescales of coral reef decline and range expansion under future predicted climate change. Whereas the most severe declines in coral cover will likely occur within 60-80 years, significant tropical coral range expansion requires centuries. The absence of large-scale coral refugia in the face of rapid anthropogenic climate change emphasises the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and mitigate non-thermal stressors for corals, both in the tropics and high-latitudes.