Yves‐Marie Bozec

Thermal adaptation in coral Stylophora pistillata is polygenic and largely population-specific across the Great Barrier Reef, yet range-wide models predict regional genotype-environment patterns and future maladaptation.

Eco-evolutionary simulations of 3,806 Great Barrier Reef reefs project coral cover falling to ∼14% by 2040 under every emission scenario; recovery afterwards needs warming below 2°C.

The paper develops C[~]scape, a metacommunity model for coral reefs that incorporates within-reef variability to improve predictions of coral cover dynamics.