A unified framework to identify demographic buffering in natural populations

Abstract

The Demographic Buffering Hypothesis (DBH) predicts that natural selection reduces the temporal fluctuations in demographic processes (such as survival, development, and reproduction), due to their negative impacts on population dynamics. However, a comprehensive approach that allows for the examination of demographic buffering patterns across multiple species is still lacking. Here, we propose a three-step framework aimed at identifying and quantifying demographic buffering. Firstly, we categorize species along a continuum of variance based on their stochastic elasticities. Secondly, we examine the linear selection gradients, followed by the examination of nonlinear selection gradients as the third step. With these three steps, our framework overcomes existing limitations of conventional approaches to identify and quantify demographic buffering, allows for multi-species comparisons, and offers an insight into the evolutionary forces that shape demographic buffering. We apply this framework to mammal species and discuss both the advantages and potential of our framework.