A. Ozgul

Four decades of phenology in an alpine amphibian: trends, stasis, and climatic drivers

This study examines phenological shifts in an alpine toad population over 39 years, finding earlier breeding linked to climate factors but with limited individual variation.

Community structure determines the predictability of population collapse

This study shows that community structure affects the reliability of early warning signals for population collapse, with abundance-based signals being more reliable than trait-based ones in multi-species communities.

Low-coverage reduced representation sequencing reveals subtle within-island genetic structure in Aldabra giant tortoises

The paper uses low-coverage ddRAD sequencing to analyze genetic structure in Aldabra giant tortoises, finding subtle within-island differentiation but no between-island differentiation.

Beyond demographic buffering: Context dependence in demographic strategies across animals

The paper assesses demographic buffering in animal populations and finds no strong evidence for it, instead highlighting context-dependent variation in vital rates.

A tradeoff between robustness to environmental fluctuations and speed of evolution

This study shows a tradeoff between robustness to environmental fluctuations and speed of evolution in life histories.

Assessing seasonal demographic covariation to understand environmental-change impacts on a hibernating mammal

The paper uses a factor-analytic approach to model seasonal demographic covariation in yellow-bellied marmots, showing how environmental quality impacts population persistence.

Global analysis reveals complex demographic responses of mammals to climate change

The paper analyzes how climate change affects mammal demographics globally, finding that most species experience mixed demographic responses with some rates increasing and others declining.

Effect of time-series length and resolution on abundance- and trait-based early warning signals of population declines

This study evaluates how time-series length and resolution affect the effectiveness of early warning signals for population decline, showing that trait data can improve forecasting accuracy.

Eco-evolutionary processes underlying early warning signals of population declines

This study shows that ecological and evolutionary factors influence the strength of early warning signals for population declines, and combining trait and abundance data improves prediction accuracy.

Co-occurrence of contrasting life-history strategies in a metapopulation inhabiting temporally variable and stable breeding sites

This study examines how environmental stochasticity affects life-history strategies in a yellow-bellied toad metapopulation, finding that variable breeding sites lead to slower life histories and increased survival.

When do shifts in trait dynamics precede population declines?

The paper shows that shifts in fitness-related traits can precede population declines under medium-to-slow environmental change, influenced by predictability, reproductive rate, plasticity, and genetic variation.

Modeling Adaptive and Non-adaptive Responses of Populations to Environmental Change

The paper develops models to predict population responses to environmental change by linking quantitative genetics with data-driven models, showing that evolutionary responses are slower than plastic ones and depend on plastic adaptiveness.