Assessing the origins of the European Plagues following the Black Death: a synthesis of genomic, historical and ecological information

Abstract

The Second Plague Pandemic started in Europe with the Black Death in 1346 and lasted until the 19th century. Based on ancient DNA studies, there is a scientific disagreement over whether the bacterium, Yersinia pestis, came into Europe once (Hypothesis 1), or repeatedly over the following four centuries (Hypothesis 2). Here we synthesize the most updated phylogeny together with historical, archeological, evolutionary and ecological information. On the basis of this holistic view, we conclude that Hypothesis 2 is the most plausible. We also suggest that Y. pestis lineages might have developed attenuated virulence during transmission, which can explain the convergent evolutionary signals, including pla-decay, that appeared at the end of the pandemics. Significance StatementOver the last few years there has been a great deal of scientific debate regarding whether the plague bacterium, Yersinia pestis, spread from a Western European reservoir during the Second Plague Pandemic, or if it repeatedly came to Europe from Asia. Here we make a synthesis of the available evidence, including genomes of ancient DNA, historical, archeological and ecological information. We conclude that the bacterium most likely came to Europe from Asia several times during the Second Plague Pandemic.