CovidOutcome2: a tool for SARS-CoV2 mutation identification and for disease severity prediction

Abstract

Our goal was to develop a platform, CovidOutcome2, capable of predicting disease severity from viral mutation profiles using automated machine learning (autoML) and deep neural networks applied to the available large corpus of sequenced SARS-CoV2 genomes. CovidOutcome2 accepts either user-submitted genomes or user defined mutation combinations as the input. The output is a predicted severity score plus a list of identified, annotated mutations and their functional effects in VCF format. The best model performance is a ROC-AUC 0.899 for the model including patient age and ROC-AUC 0.83 for the model without patient age. AvailabilityCovidOutcome is freely available online under the URL https://www.covidoutcome.bio-ml.com as well as in a standalone version https://github.com/bio-apps/covid-outcome.