Climate-smart prioritisation of tropical Key Biodiversity Areas for protection in response to widespread temperature novelty.

Abstract

Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) are a cornerstone of 21st century area-based conservation targets. In tropical KBAs, biodiversity is potentially at high risk from climate change, because most species reside within or beneath the canopy, where small increases in temperature can lead to novel climate regimes. We quantify novelty in temperature regimes by modelling hourly temperatures below the forest canopy across tropical KBAs between 1990 and 2019. We find that up to 66% of KBAs with tropical forest are likely to have transitioned to novel temperature regimes. Nevertheless, 34% of KBAs are providing refuge from novelty, 58% of which are not protected. By conducting the first pan-tropical analyses of changes in below-canopy temperatures, we identify KBAs that are acting as climate refugia and should be prioritised as candidates for expansion of the conservation network in response to the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework target to conserve 30% of land area by 2030.