Into new depths: climate-driven habitat expansion of the endangered skate Dipturus chilensis (Chondrichthyes, Rajiformes)

Abstract

The yellownose skate (Dipturus chilensis) is an endangered skate with a narrow distribution in the southeastern Pacific, facing intense fishing pressure and potential climate threats. Using a species distribution model, we projected the current and future distribution of D. chilensis under contrasting climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for mid-century (2050) and end-of-century (2100). Our models, which demonstrated robust predictive performance significantly better than random expectations, identified maximum temperature and minimum oxygen as the primary environmental drivers of habitat suitability. Projections revealed a consistent poleward range shift towards the Channels and Fjords of Southern Chile ecoregion across all scenarios. While localized habitat loss was projected in Central Chile and Araucanian ecoregions, particularly under high emissions (SSP5-8.5), these losses were outweighed by southern expansions, leading to a net increase in total suitable habitat by 2100. These findings underscore the critical need for climate-adaptive management strategies, including the protection of emerging southern refugia and dynamic fisheries regulations, to ensure the long-term persistence of D. chilensis.