Species Distribution and Climate Change

`Q-niche': topology-preserving niche hypervolumes built using a quantum mechanics modelling analogue.

Q-niche estimates ecological hypervolumes using a quantum mechanics-inspired algorithm, preserving topological features better than existing methods in synthetic and empirical data.

Advancing Spatial Pattern Integration in Species Distribution Modelling With Computer Vision: How Grain Size and Extent Concepts Shape Predictions of Emerging Aquatic Insects

This paper evaluates how grain size and window extent affect Deep SDMs for predicting aquatic insect distributions, finding significant performance variations with different resolutions and extents.

Stop guessing thinning distances: a data-driven framework for spatial thinning parametrization for ecological modelling

This paper introduces a data-driven framework for spatial thinning parameterization in ecological modelling, showing that optimal thinning parameters vary with species range size and that uniform approaches can lead to information loss or reduced spatial clustering.

Vertebrates do not display consistent declines in abundance or stability with contemporary range or realized climate niche centrality

This study finds no consistent decline in vertebrate abundance or stability with distance from range or climate niche centres, challenging assumptions in ecological models.

Integrating nested species distribution models and multicriteria prioritization into an open-access geoportal for tropical forest restoration

The paper develops a geoportal integrating nested species distribution models and prioritization tools to guide tropical forest restoration in Ecuador.

Interactive effects of land use change and climate drive the decline of a threatened boreal forest orchid in Finland

The paper assesses how forest loss and climate change interact to affect the extinction risk of a boreal orchid in Finland.

Adaptation to marginal habitats at the rear edge provides resilience to future warming

This study shows rear-edge populations of Campanula americana have adapted to warm climates by reducing vernalization needs, which may help them survive future warming.

Large language models unlock the ecology of species interactions

This paper uses large language models to extract species interaction data from citizen science comments, expanding ecological data coverage and enabling new ecological research.

Legacy Effects of Land-Use Land-Cover Change on Species Distribution Dynamics: Evidence from a landscape of diverse biogeographic crossroads

The paper examines how long-term land-use changes in Texas have shaped vertebrate species distribution dynamics over nearly two centuries.

STEM-LM: Spatio-Temporal Ecological Modeling via Masked Language Model for Multi-Species Distribution

STEM-LM uses masked language modeling to predict multi-species distributions by treating species presence as tokens in a spatio-temporal 'sentence', achieving high discrimination on ecological datasets.

Correcting and georeferencing natural history occurrence records with calibrated uncertainty

GeoMend corrects and georeferences biodiversity occurrence records with calibrated uncertainty, improving accuracy and reducing environmental prediction errors.

biomes: An R package for reproducible occurrence-to-biome classification using 31 global biome schemes

The paper introduces an R package that classifies occurrence records into 31 global biome schemes and ranks them based on data fit.

When indicator species identified from a network structure predict biodiversity

The paper evaluates using indicator species from co-occurrence networks to predict biodiversity, finding they can reconstruct species assemblages but are often outperformed by climate-based models.

Probabilistic species distributions from nine large-scale gridded atlases over five decades

The paper estimates probabilistic species distributions from nine large-scale gridded atlases over five decades, accounting for sampling effort variation using a Bayesian spatial occupancy model.

Plants and mammals once tracked climate closely, then mammal niches shifted under human pressure

The paper reconstructs climatic niches for plants and mammals in North America over time, finding higher climate fidelity in plants and significant niche shifts in mammals following human colonization.

Areas of high risk for mammalian biodiversity and Nature's Contributions to People under global warming

The paper develops a model to predict mammalian extinction risks under climate change and identifies high-risk areas for biodiversity and Nature's Contributions to People.

Projected habitat loss and spatial redistribution of two alpine and subalpine species in Himachal Pradesh, Western Himalaya under CMIP6 scenarios

This study projects habitat loss and spatial redistribution of two alpine and subalpine species under climate change scenarios to inform climate-proof conservation planning.

Towards the automation of Species Distribution Modelling: The AutoMaxEnt routine

The paper introduces AutoMaxEnt, a tool that automates species distribution modeling by handling data preprocessing, model scenarios, and selection across species and time periods.

Distribution models predict climate-related range alteration or extinction of eleven threatened tropical rainforest trees in the Western Ghats

The paper models climate impacts on 11 threatened tropical tree species in the Western Ghats, predicting range reductions or extinctions under future climate scenarios.

sabinaMBM: An R package for Multiscale Bayesian species distribution Modelling using INLA

The paper introduces sabinaMBM, an R package for multiscale Bayesian species distribution modeling that improves out-of-sample discrimination and uncertainty propagation across scales.

Climate Warming Patterns Predict Potential Residency Shifts

The paper predicts climate-driven residency shifts in wetland wading birds using an individual-based model and habitat suitability analysis.

GLACIAL SPECIALIST SPECIES ARE MORE VULNERABLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE THAN GENERALIST SPECIES (DRAWING PARELLELS BETWEEN EMPIRICAL AND ECOLOGICAL DISTINCTIONS)

The paper compares the distribution predictors of glacial specialist and generalist plant species in Switzerland using Species Distribution Models and finds bioclimatic variables strongly predict specialists, while topographic and lithological variables predict generalists more strongly.

HOW FIVE DECADES OF LAND-COVER CHANGE RESHAPED SUITABLE HABITAT FOR PUERTO RICAN TREE SPECIES

The paper assesses how 50 years of land-cover change in Puerto Rico affected suitable habitat for tree species based on climate, niche, and functional traits.

Climate-driven shifts in distributions and habitat suitability of amphipod species under future ocean change

This study projects future distribution shifts of amphipod species under climate change scenarios and finds trophic strategy influences spatial responses to warming.

Addressing Data Fragmentation in Biodiversity: A Workflow for integrated Species Distribution Models

This paper presents a workflow for integrating fragmented biodiversity datasets to produce species richness maps, showing improved model accuracy through integrated species distribution modeling.

Closing the biodiversity observation-to-action loop

The paper develops a biodiversity platform in Japan that uses citizen science data to predict species distributions and guide conservation efforts by identifying areas with missing information.

Blind spots in traditional approaches to conservation prioritization in a climate change context

This paper evaluates traditional conservation prioritization methods using desiccation-tolerant plants, finding they poorly predict climate change vulnerability and suggesting improved strategies based on species sensitivity.

North American bird occupancy dynamics attributed to climate and land use change

This study attributes changes in North American bird occupancy to climate and land use change using counterfactual simulations and Bayesian models, finding climate change negatively affected 90% of species and land use change 96%.

Genetically informed distribution models refine predictions for the overwintering range of Helicoverpa armigera in North America

This paper develops a genetically informed species distribution model to predict the overwintering range of Helicoverpa armigera in North America, finding that a cold-adapted allele may significantly expand its potential range.

Decoupling environmental suitability from realized recruitment through ontogenetic environmental filtering in a long-lived Mediterranean palm species

The paper examines ontogenetic environmental filtering in a Mediterranean palm species, finding that adult presence does not reliably indicate recruitment suitability due to niche shifts and dispersal limitations.