Contrasting life history strategies explain contrasting phenology of two co-occurring bumble bee species

Across species, changing environmental conditions are altering major phenological milestones. In seasonal environments, this can involve shifts in the timing of activity onset, growth, reproduction, and senescence; however, predicting these responses can be challenging and often requires species-specific information. In this study, we investigated phenological patterns of bumble bee colony development using observations from wild nests of two common species, Bombus griseocollis and B. impatiens. Using observations of nest traffic, we documented dates of nest-searching, peak worker activity, first gyne (new queen) production, and colony senescence over three years of field data collection. We also tested whether colony growth was density dependent, because longstanding life history models have shown that colony growth patterns determine the optimal timing of reproduction in constant environments. Here, we present a novel extension of these models, using them to infer that density-independent colony growth should be associated with extended phenology in warmer years, while density-dependent should have consistent phenology. In total, we found 79 wild nests, including 34 reproductive colonies (19 B. griseocolis and 15 B. impatiens). Bombus impatiens colonies were larger, had a longer activity period, and showed density-independent growth and later reproduction in warmer years, while B. griseocollis colonies were smaller, shorter-lived, and showed density-dependent growth and similar dates of reproduction across years. Both species had higher gyne production in warmer years. These results highlight the role of life history theory for predicting interspecific variation in phenological changes, as well as a research framework for exploring possible evolutionary mismatches of existing life histories in changing environments.