Towards modelling cold-water coral reef-scale crumbling: Including morphological variability in mechanical surrogate models

The structural complexity of cold-water corals is threatened by ocean acidification. Increased porosity and weakening of structurally critical parts of the reef framework may lead to rapid physical collapse on an ecosystem scale, reducing their potential for biodiversity support. We can use computational models to describe the mechanisms leading to reef-crumbling. How-ever, the implementation of such models into an efficient predictive tool that allows us to determine risk and timescales of reef collapse is missing. Here, we identified possible surrogate models to represent the branching architecture of the cold-water coral species Lophelia pertusa. For length scales greater than 13 cm, a continuum finite element mechanical approach can be used to analyse mechanical competence whereas at smaller length scales, mechanical surrogate models need to explicitly account for the statistical differences in the structure. We showed large morphological variations between L. pertusa colonies and branches, as well as dead and live skeletal structures, which need to be considered for the development of rapid monitoring tools for predicting risk of cold-water coral reefs crumbling. This will allow us to investigate timescales of changes, including the impact of exposure times to acidified waters on reef-crumbling.