No general shift in spring migration phenology by eastern North American birds since 1970

Abstract

We studied the phenology of spring bird migration from eBird and EPOQ checklist programs South of 49{degrees}N in the province of Quebec, Canada, between 1970 and 2020. 152 species were grouped into Arctic, long-distance, and short-distance migrants. Among those species, 75 significantly changed their migration dates, after accounting for temporal variability in observation effort, species abundance, and latitude. But in contrast to most studies on the subject, we found no general advance in spring migration dates, with 36 species advancing and 39 species delaying their migration. Several early-migrant species associated to open water advanced their spring migration, possibly due to decreasing early-spring ice cover in the Great Lakes and the St-Lawrence river since 1970. Arctic breeders and short-distance migrants advanced their first arrival dates more than long-distance migrants not breeding in the arctic. However, there was no difference among migrant groups when median arrival dates were considered. We conclude that general claims about advances in spring migration dates in eastern North America are misleading due to large taxonomic variation.