Rapid and divergent changes in the continental-scale organisation of a short-lived songbird's migratory strategy

It is hard to predict how rapidly songbird migration will change in the Anthropocene. Indeed, since songbird migration is thought to have a strong heritable component, the continental-scale organisation of migratory movement might be seen as fairly inflexible. Perhaps one of the best models for the ecology and evolution of migration is the Eurasian blackcap (Sylvia atricapilla) which, as part of a continent-wide effort to characterise blackcap migratory phenotype, we geolocator-tracked from breeding sites in eastern Poland. Rather than migrating in the expected south-easterly migratory direction, these birds migrated south and south-west - suggesting that blackcaps in the east of their range have switched migratory direction. We sought to investigate the extent of this phenomenon using almost a century of ringing data, which confirmed that blackcaps breeding across the entirety of Eastern Europe have indeed almost completely stopped using their historic eastern flyway. Instead, a shorter-distance west-migrating phenotype has emerged, which we find is consistent with warmer winter temperatures opening up wintering sites at more northerly latitudes in the west. We discuss what drives changes in migratory behaviour over short timescales; and consider what this tells us about how migratory information is inherited.