Stony Coral Symbioses Show Variable Responses to Future Ocean Conditions

Abstract

Coral reefs support over a quarter of marine species and nearly a billion people worldwide but are also among the ecosystems most threatened by anthropogenic impacts. There is long-standing debate about whether coral symbioses will be disrupted or respond adaptively under future ocean conditions. Using a factorial 2.5-year future-ocean mesocosm experiment across eight coral species representing the major coral lineages, we tracked symbiont community shifts within replicate fragments from the same individual coral. Some corals exhibited stochastic divergence consistent with dysbiosis, whereas others showed deterministic, thermally adaptive shifts. Heat stress generally reduced symbiont diversity and promoted predictable restructuring, supporting deterministic processes under moderate stress but stochastic dysbiosis under extreme conditions. We propose that adaptive and stochastic responses represent endpoints along a continuum of host-orchestrated symbiont sorting. This study bridges coral reef ecology with broader host-microbiome theory, offering an integrated perspective on how symbiotic systems may respond to environmental change. TeaserLong-term experiments reveal that corals follow distinct paths of symbiont change under heat stress, from adaptation to dysbiosis