Stability and critical transitions in mutualistic ecological systems

Successful conservation of complex ecosystems, their function and associated services, requires deep understanding of their underlying dynamics and potential instabilities. While the study of ecological dynamics is a mature and diverse field, the lack of a general model that uses basic ecological parameters to predict system-level behaviour has allowed unresolved contradictions to persist. Here, we provide a general model of a mutualistic ecological community and show for the first time how the conditions for instability, the nature of ecological collapse, and potential early-warning signals, can be derived from the basic ecological parameters. We also resolve open questions concerning effects of interaction heterogeneity on both resilience and abundance, and discuss their potential trade-off in real systems. This framework provides a basis for rich investigations of ecological system dynamics, and can be generalised across many ecological contexts.