Inferring time-lagged causality using the derivative of single-cell expression

Many computational methods have been developed for inferring causality among genes using cross-sectional gene expression data, such as single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) data. However, due to the limitations of scRNA-seq technologies, time-lagged causal relationships may be missed by existing methods. In this work, we propose a method, called causal inference with time-lagged information (CITL), to infer time-lagged causal relationships from scRNA-seq data by assessing conditional independence between the changing and current expression levels of genes. CITL estimates the changing expression levels of genes by "RNA velocity". We demonstrate the accuracy and stability of CITL for inferring time-lagged causality on simulation data against other leading approaches. We have applied CITL to real scRNA data and inferred 878 pairs of time-lagged causal relationships, with many of these inferred results supported by the literature. Author summaryComputational causal inference is a promising way to survey causal relationships between genes efficiently. Though many causal inference methods have been applied to gene expression data, none considers the time-lagged causal relationship, which means that some genes may take some time to affect their target genes with several reactions. If relationships between genes are time-lagged, the existing methods assumptions will be violated. The relationships will be challenging to recognize. We demonstrate that this is indeed the case through simulation. Therefore, we develop a method for inferring time-lagged causal relationships of single-cell gene expression data. We assume that a time-lagged causal relationship should present a strong association between the cause and the effects changing. To calculate such correlation, we first estimate the derivative of gene expression using the information from unspliced transcripts. Then, we use conditional independent tests to search gene pairs satisfying our assumption. Our results suggest that we could accurately infer time-lagged causal gene pairs validated by published literature. This method may complement gene regulatory analysis and provide candidate gene pairs for further controlled experiments.