Variation in temperature of peak trait performance will constrain adaptation of arthropod populations to climatic warming.

The capacity of arthropod populations to adapt to long-term climatic warming is uncertain. Here, we combine theory and extensive data on diverse arthropod taxa to show that their rate of thermal adaptation to climatic warming will be constrained in two fundamental ways. First, the rate of thermal adaptation is predicted to be limited by the rate of shift in the temperature of peak performance of four life-history traits in a specific order: juvenile development, adult fecundity, juvenile mortality, and adult mortality. Second, thermal adaptation will be constrained due to differences in the temperature of peak performance among these four traits, which are expected to persist because of trade-offs. By compiling a new global dataset of 61 diverse arthropod species, we find strong evidence that contemporary populations have indeed evolved under these constraints. Our results provide a basis for using relatively feasible trait measurements to predict the adaptive capacity of diverse arthropod populations to climatic warming.