Simulation of sugar kelp (Saccharina latissima) breeding guided by practices to prioritize accelerated research gains

The domestication process of sugar kelp in the Northeast U.S. was initiated by selective breeding two years ago. In this study, we will demonstrate how obstacles for accelerated genetic gain can be assessed using simulation approaches that inform resource allocation decisions in our research. Thus far, we have used 140 wild sporophytes (SPs) that were sampled from the northern Gulf of Maine (GOM) to southern New England (SNE). From these SPs, we sampled gametophytes (GPs) and made and evaluated over 600 progeny SPs from crosses among the GPs. The biphasic life cycle of kelp gives a great advantage in selective breeding as we can potentially select both on the SPs and GPs. However, several obstacles exist, such as the amount of time it takes to complete a breeding cycle, the number of GPs that can be maintained in the lab, and whether positive selection can be conducted on farm tested SPs. Using the GOM population characteristics for heritability and effective population size, we simulated a founder population of 1000 individuals and evaluated the impact of overcoming these obstacles on genetic gain. Our results showed that key factors to improve current genetic gain rely mainly on our ability to induce reproduction of the best farm-tested SPs, and to accelerate the clonal vegetative growth of released GPs so that enough GP biomass is ready for making crosses by the next growing season. Overcoming these challenges could improve rates of genetic gain more than two-fold. Future research should focus on conditions favorable for inducing spring and early summer reproduction, and increasing the amount of GP tissue available in time to make fall crosses.