Divergence in wilt tolerance across the range of Mimulus guttatus in the absence of stomatal regulation

Whether phenotypes and environments predict performance under stress is central to ecology and evolution and can reveal species' vulnerability to global change. We sampled Mimulus guttatus range-wide to test whether reproductive, morphological, and physiological traits predict drought responses. Surprisingly, we find that stomatal response, a key mediator of water balance, did not change as drought intensified. Climate, however, predicted survival after turgor loss: plants from regions with large daily relative to seasonal temperature ranges survived wilting longer. Stress responses also depended on life history: where summers are dry, perennials withstood lower water potentials, whereas annuals increased leaf cooling as they wilted. Known trait associations were not fixed: although many baseline traits tracked climate, none predicted drought responses. Drought performance therefore cannot be inferred from traits measured under well-watered conditions. Lacking stomatal regulation, riparian drought escapers like M. guttatus may be vulnerable if shorter growing seasons bring drought before reproduction.