Butterflies Are Shrinking: Evidence from the Past Century

Abstract

Climate change has had strong impacts on biodiversity, including well-documented shifts in the distributions and phenology of species. Reductions in body size represent a third pervasive biological response; it has garnered significantly less attention despite great ecological relevance. Theoretical frameworks-the temperature-size rule, Bergmanns rule, and Jamess rule-predict that warmer temperatures are associated with smaller body sizes in ectotherms. In contrast, empirical evidence concerning this pattern is mixed across both taxa and environments. In the present study, we applied computer vision techniques to historical data from two large butterfly museum collections, totaling 593 species across 10 terrestrial biomes over more than a century, in order to investigate long-term trends in butterfly body size. We measured forewing length through both manual image analyses and automated computer vision algorithms proxying body size and analyzed trends by using generalized additive models in order to consider a temporal, biome-specific pattern assessment. We have tested two hypotheses: that butterfly body size (1) declines over time, in conjunction with increasing ambient temperatures, in agreement with the temperature-size rule, and (2) its variation is more marked in warm, dry biomes. Results indicate a significant overall reduction in the body size of butterflies during the last century and that this reduction is indeed more pronounced in those biomes facing higher rises in temperature. These findings constitute large-scale evidence in support of the temperature-size rule and indicate a potential ecological impact of climate change on butterfly populations.