Data-driven yield projections suggest large opportunities to improve Europe's soybean self-sufficiency under climate change

Currently, demand for soybean in Europe is mostly fulfilled by imports. However, soybean-growing areas across Europe have been rapidly increasing in response to a rising demand for locally-produced, non-GM soybean in recent years. This raises questions about the suitability of European agro-climatic conditions for soybean production. We used data-driven relationships between climate and soybean yield derived from machine-learning techniques to make yield projections under current and future climate with moderate (RCP 4.5) to intense (RCP 8.5) warming, up to the 2050s and 2090s time horizons. Results suggest that a self-sufficiency level of 50% (100%) would be achievable in Europe under historical and future climate if 4-5% (9-12%) of the current European cropland is dedicated to soybean production. The associated increase in soybean area in Europe would bring environmental benefits, with a potential decrease of nitrogen fertilizer use in Europe by 5-8% (13-18%) and a possible reduction of deforestation in biodiversity hotspots in South America. However, it would also lead to an important reduction in the production of other cultivated species in Europe (e.g. cereals) and a potential increase in the use of irrigation water.