Crop improvement can accelerate agriculture adaptation to societal demands and climate change.
Carlos D. MessinaiD, Lucas BorrásiD, Tom TangiD, Mark CooperiD
Abstract
A key question today is how to harmonize future crop improvement efforts for regenerative cropping systems that can mitigate further environmental degeneration and improve societal adaptation to climate change. Here we show that the US corn-belt based maize improvement system has been adapting to the changing climate. Analyses of the longest running field experiment (1990-2021) designed to quantify yield gains (37 hybrids sold from 1930 to 1990) demonstrate that rates of genetic gain were always positive and have increased over time (from 70 to 150 kg ha-1 y-1 in 1990 and 2021, respectively). Between 1930 and 2021 for the May through October period total rainfall for the U.S. corn belt increased 113 mm, and daily temperature amplitude decreased 1.3{degrees}C. At the same time, farmers modified their farming practices, helping modern hybrids to out-perform their older counterparts by a larger degree. In contrast to the conclusions reached by other observational studies, genetic gain estimates demonstrate that maize breeding and the production system are adapting to modern scenarios. Climate change is commonly linked to fears of food insecurity, but new cropping systems capable of providing food while regenerating resources such as water, the circularization of nutrients, and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions are possible.
02 /Specification & Classification
Click any tag to browse matching papers- Citations
- 2
Reproducibility ledger
Nobody has reported trying to reproduce this paper yet. Did you replicate an experiment or run the code? Your report saves the next lab a week.
Sign in to file a reproducibility report.
Related papers
- Plant Breeding in the face of climate change
C. Messina, M. Cooper·bioRxiv·Oct 7, 2022
- Reproductive resilience but not root architecture underpin yield improvement in maize
C. Messina, M. Cooper, … G. Graham·bioRxiv·Sep 30, 2020
- Two decades of creating drought tolerant maize and underpinning prediction technologies in the US corn-belt: Review and perspectives on the future of crop design
C. Messina, M. Cooper, … F. van Eeuwijk·bioRxiv·Oct 29, 2020
- Adaptive introgression: an untapped evolutionary mechanism for crop adaptation
C. Burgarella, A. Barnaud, … C. Berthouly-Salazar·bioRxiv·Jul 30, 2018
- Single-gene resolution of locally adaptive genetic variation in Mexican maize
D. J. Gates, D. Runcie, … J. Ross-Ibarra·bioRxiv·Jul 18, 2019
- Assessing the impact of yield plasticity on hybrid performance in maize
Jensina M. Davis, Lisa Coffey, … James C. Schnable·Physiologia PlantarumPeer-reviewed·May 1, 2025