The Anticipation of Events in Time

Humans use sensory input to anticipate events. The brains capacity to predict cues in time is commonly assumed to be modulated by two uncertainty parameters, the hazard rate (HR) of event probability and the uncertainty in time estimation, which increases with elapsed time. We investigate both assumptions by manipulating event probability density functions (PDF) in three sensory modalities. First we show, contrary to expectation, that perceptual systems use the reciprocal PDF - and not the HR - to model event probability density. Next we demonstrate that temporal uncertainty does not necessarily grow with elapsed time but also diminishes, depending on the event PDF. Finally we show that reaction time (RT) distributions comprise modality-specific and modality-independent components, the latter likely reflecting similarity in processing of probability density across sensory modalities. The results are consistent across vision, audition, and somatosensation, indicating that probability density is more fundamental than hazard rate in terms of the neural operations determining event anticipation and temporal uncertainty. Previous research identified neuronal activitity related to event probability in multiple levels of the cortical hierarchy such as early and higher sensory (V1, V4), association (LIP), motor and other areas. This work proposed that the elementary neuronal computation in estimation of probability across time is the HR. In contrast, our results suggest that the neurobiological implementation of probability estimation is based on a different, much simpler and more stable computation than HR: the reciprocal PDF of events in time.