Running rabid: modelling of European bat lyssavirus (EBLV) pathways in a bat population

Abstract

Worldwide the 16 species of lyssaviruses all exhibit a similar pathology in most mammals, including man; with successful infections usually ending with death. Recently it has been demonstrated that European bat lyssaviruses (EBLV) are not invariably fatal in their wild reservoir host bat species, however the mechanisms and epidemiological consequences of this resistance are interesting and unexplored and the fundamental pathology in bats is still unclear. Here we modelled alternative pathological pathways to explore which appear most plausible, with respect to our limited knowledge of bat-rabies epidemiology and also host population dynamics. Two models were created, one based on a standard progression of disease (classic SEIR model) and the other modified to allow for animals to become either rabid or immune (flexible model). Of these our flexible model was found to be more plausible, demonstrating a much lower sensitivity to epidemiological parameters and by inference the more likely to represent the real-life process occurring in wild European bat populations, with a comparative state space ratio of 1:47. This result implies that it is highly probable survival and post-infection immunity is a widespread epidemiological phenomenon rather than an infrequent consequence of an aborted infection in few individuals. These results can be used to inform laboratory studies on bat immunology and future bat modelling work.