Scaling effects of temperature on parasitism from individuals to host-parasite systems

Abstract

Parasitism is expected to change in a warmer future, but whether warming leads to substantial increases in parasitism remains unclear. Understanding how warming effects on parasitism in individual hosts (e.g., parasite load) translate to effects on population-level parasitism (e.g., prevalence, R0) remains a major knowledge gap. We analyzed the temperature dependence of parasitism at both host and population levels in thirteen empirical vector-borne host-parasite systems and found a strong, significant positive correlation between the thermal optima of individual- and population-level parasitism. We also found a significant, positive correlation in eleven environmentally-transmitted parasite systems, though several of these systems exhibited thermal optima >5{o}C apart between individual and population levels. Similarly, parasitism thermal optima were close to host performance thermal optima in vector-borne systems but not in environmentally-transmitted systems. We then adapted and simulated simple models for both transmission modes and found a similar pattern to the empirical systems: thermal optima in vector-borne systems were more strongly correlated across scales compared to environmentally-transmitted systems. Generally, our results suggest that information on the temperature-dependence, and specifically the thermal optimum, at either the individual- or population-level should provide a useful--though not quantitatively exact--baseline for predicting temperature dependence at the other level, especially in vector-borne parasite systems. Environmentally-transmitted parasitism may operate by a different set of rules, in which temperature-dependence is decoupled in some systems, requiring the need for trait-based studies of temperature-dependence at individual and population levels.