Shortfalls and opportunities in terrestrial vertebrate species discovery

Meter-resolution imagery of our world and myriad biodiversity records collected through citizen scientists and automated sensors belie the fact that much of the planets biodiversity remains undiscovered. Conservative estimates suggest only 13 to 18% of all living species may be known at this point 1-4, although this number could be as low as 1.5% 5. This biodiversity shortfall 6,7 strongly impedes the sustainable management of our planets resources, as the potential ecological and economic relevance of undiscovered species remains unrecognized 8. Here we use model-based predictions of terrestrial vertebrate species discovery to estimate future taxonomic and geographic discovery opportunities. Our model identifies distinct taxonomic and geographic unevenness in future discovery potential, with greatest opportunities for amphibians and reptiles and for Neotropical and IndoMalayan forests. Brazil, Indonesia, Madagascar, and Colombia emerge as holding greatest discovery opportunities, with a quarter of future species descriptions expected there. These findings highlight the significance of international support for taxonomic initiatives and the potential of quantitative models to aid the discovery of species before their functions are lost in ignorance 8. As nations draw up new policy goals under the post-2020 global biodiversity framework, a better understanding of the magnitude and geography of this known unknown is critical to inform goals and priorities 9 and to minimize future discoveries lost to extinction10.