Mosquito invasion via the global shipping network is slowed in high-risk areas by on-shore and ship-board monitoring

Abstract

The global shipping network (GSN) has been suggested as a pathway for the establishment and reintroduction of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus primarily via the tire trade. We used historical maritime movement data in combination with an agent-based model to understand invasion risk in the United States Gulf Coast and how the risk of these invasions could be reduced. We found a strong correlation between the total number of cargo ship arrivals at each port and likelihood of arrival by both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Additionally, in 2012, 99.2% of the arrivals into target ports had most recently visited ports occupied by both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, increasing risk of Aedes invasion. Model results indicated that detection and removal of mosquitoes from containers when they are unloaded at a port may be more effective in reducing the establishment of mosquito populations compared to eradication efforts that occur while onboard the vessel, suggesting detection efforts should be focused on unloaded containers. To reduce the risk of invasion and reintroduction of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, surveillance and control efforts should be employed when containers leave high risk locations and when they arrive in ports at high risk of establishment.