Waiting for love but not forever: modelling the evolution of waiting time to selfing in hermaphrodites

Abstract

Although mixed mating systems involving both selfing and outcrossing are fairly common in hermaphrodites, it is unclear how they are maintained. In some species, individuals delay self-fertilization while they have not found a mating partner. The waiting time is subject to two opposing selection pressures: waiting helps to avoid inbreeding depression in offspring by increasing the density-dependent probability to encounter a mate, but also increases the risk of dying before reproduction. In some species waiting time can vary between individuals and be heritable. We therefore used an individual-based model to explore how delayed selfing evolves in response to density and density fluctuations. We find that at high density, when individuals meet often, drift drives waiting time; at intermediate densities, strong inbreeding depression causes waiting time to increase; and at low densities, inbreeding depression is purged, and waiting time approaches zero. Positive feedback loops drive the system to either complete selfing or complete outcrossing. Fluctuating density can slow down convergence to these alternative stable states. However, mixed mating, in the sense of either a stable polymorphism in waiting times, or stable intermediate times, was never observed. Thus, additional factors need to be explored to explain the persistence of delayed selfing.