Phylogeographic analysis and identification of factors impacting the diffusion of Foot-and-Mouth disease virus in Africa

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in sub-Saharan Africa and can lead to important and continuous economic losses for affected countries. Due to the complexity of the disease epidemiology and the lack of data there is a need to use inferential computational approaches to fill the gaps in our understanding of the circulation of FMD virus on this continent. Using a phylogeographic approach we reconstructed the circulation of FMD virus serotypes A, O and SAT2 in Africa and evaluated the influence of potential environmental and anthropological predictors of virus diffusion. Our results show that over the last hundred year the continental circulation of the tree serotypes was mainly driven by livestock trade. Whilst our analyses show that the serotypes A and O were introduced in Africa trough livestock trades, the SAT2 serotype probably originates from African wildlife population. The circulation of serotype O in eastern Africa is impacted by both indirect transmission through persistence in the environment and anthropological activities such as cattle movements.