Temperature, phenology, and plant defenses predict fitness near colder range limit

Abstract

The space for time substitution posits that warmer locations can provide a source of genetic variation that could be adaptive for future climate change conditions. While this approximation might be useful for planning assisted gene flow, it relies on the importance of abiotic adaptations over biotic ones. Here I address this gap by assessing influence of anti-herbivore defenses, phenology, and morphology on the seed production of 146 populations of Oenothera biennis close to the plants cold range limit. Genotypes from 2.1{degrees} South of the common garden produce more seeds than most northern lineages. Adaptations across space are a suitable substitute for climate change, but there is still substantial fitness variability. These differences were best explained by bolt date, flowering time, and greater defenses against herbivores. Given the impacts of climate change, plant defenses might already be of similar adaptive importance to phenology close to northern rage limits.