Modeling habitat suitability for insect pollinators in New York City: Two decades of change

Abstract

As cities change and expand, it is increasingly important to understand how urbanization is altering habitat suitability for wildlife, particularly insect pollinators. Using species distribution models (SDMs), we assessed spatial and temporal changes in habitat suitability for diurnal pollinators in New York City over two decades (2000s and 2010s), focusing on three insect orders: Lepidoptera, Hymenoptera, and Coleoptera. Our models revealed an 18.5% net decrease in pollinator habitat suitability citywide, with marked variation across boroughs, including localized increases in Manhattan and the Bronx. Climatic variables, especially temperature, solar radiation, and vapor pressure deficit, emerged as the strongest predictors of habitat suitability, while land cover changes had more localized effects. Among land cover types, urban forest was the only class to show increased suitability, suggesting that greening initiatives may buffer some climate-driven declines. These findings highlight the combined influence of climate and land use on pollinator habitat in cities, emphasizing the need to consider both factors when assessing urban biodiversity change. Understanding these dynamics is critical for designing urban greening initiatives that effectively support pollinator communities and inform conservation efforts in increasingly developed landscapes.