Mapping distribution of invasive plant species and uncertainty using citizen science, remote sensing, and deep learning

Abstract

Invasive plants pose a major environmental problem, threatening biodiversity, altering ecosystem functions, and causing economic loss. Climate change is altering environmental conditions, potentially facilitating the spread of invasive plant species, posing challenges for ecosystem management and biodiversity conservation. Accurate predictions of invasive species distributions are therefore essential for effective monitoring and early intervention. Species distribution models (SDMs) have become an important tool for predicting species habitats, but many studies rely on traditional machine learning approaches, focus on single-species predictions and overlook uncertainty associated with future climate scenarios. This study aims to evaluate the performance of a deep learning-based SDM framework, Deepbiosphere, for predicting both native and invasive plant species distributions on a regional scale, the US state of Michigan, and to assess how climate scenario uncertainty influences spatial predictions of invasive species risk particularly on two focal invasive species. Results show that Deepbiosphere outcompeted other baseline models by on average of 10.98% with a mean AUC-ROC of 0.79 across 1553 vascular plant species. For two invasive species Rhamnus cathartica and Ailanthus altissima, Deepbiosphere respectively improved modeling accuracy by an average of 56.41% and 74.99%, suggesting its enhanced predictive capability for invasive species. Current predictions indicated that R. cathartica is already broadly suitable across much of Michigan, whereas A. altissima is currently more restricted to southern regions. Under future climate scenarios, both species were projected to expand northward, with a particularly strong expansion signal for A. altissima. Prediction uncertainty was spatially heterogeneous, where general circulation models (GCMs) were the dominant source of uncertainty across most of the state. By integrating citizen science, remote sensing, and deep learning, we produced high-resolution risk-uncertainty maps for key invasive species and highlighted the importance of explicitly mapping uncertainty to support more informed invasive species management under climate change.