Modelling the Wolbachia Incompatible Insect Technique: strategies for effective mosquito population elimination

Abstract

The Wolbachia Incompatible Insect Technique (IIT) shows promise as a method for eliminating invasive mosquitoes such as Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus)(Diptera: Culicidae) and reducing the incidence of vector-borne diseases such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika. Successful implementation of this biological control strategy relies on high-fidelity separation of male from female insects in mass production systems for inundative release into landscapes. Processes for sex-separating mosquitoes are typically error prone, laborious and IIT programs run the risk of releasing Wolbachia infected females and replacing wild mosquito populations. We introduce a simple Markov Population Process (MPP) model for studying mosquito populations subjected to a Wolbachia-IIT program which exhibit an unstable equilibrium threshold. The model is used to study, in silico, scenarios that are likely to yield a successful elimination result. Our results suggest that elimination is best achieved by releasing males at rates that adapt to the ever-decreasing wild population, thus reducing the risk of releasing Wolbachia-infected females while reducing costs. While very high-fidelity sex-separation is required to avoid establishment, release programs tend to be robust to the release of a small number of Wolbachia-infected females. These findings will inform and enhance the next generation of Wolbachia-IIT control strategies that are already showing great promise in field trials.