Genomic forecasts of maladptation in Lycaeides butterflies

Genomic forecasting approaches based on genotype-environment associations (GEAs) are increasingly used to estimate genomic offsets (GOs), which predict population maladaptation and extinction risk under current or future climatic conditions. Despite their widespread use, only a subset of studies have evaluated how accurately GOs predict (mal)adaptation, limiting their interpretation and application in policy and management. Here, we used GEA analyses to estimate GOs for past, present, and future climates in Lycaeides butterflies, focusing on the causes of variation in GOs among populations and their relationships with demographic parameters inferred from population genomic data. Using multivariate linear regression and genotyping-by-sequencing data from 42 Lycaeides populations (922 butterflies), we found that mean annual temperature, cumulative annual precipitation, and hybridization history together explained 47.6% of variation in genome-wide allele frequencies. Genomic offsets differed substantially among populations and across past, present, and future climates, with evidence for increasing maladaptation under more distant future climate scenarios. We found no relationship between GOs for present climates and contemporary effective population size. In contrast, genetic diversity, which reflects long-term effective population size, and local rates of gene flow together explained 27.3% of variation in contemporary GOs. Populations with higher genetic diversity and more gene flow exhibited lower GOs, consistent with the hypothesis that genetic diversity enhances adaptive capacity and that gene flow may introduce adaptive alleles. Overall, our results support the utility of GO predictions, particularly when validated with independent measures of adaptation, while cautioning against simplistic interpretations of GO as a direct measure of maladaptation in conservation and management contexts.