Predicted the impacts of climate change and extreme-weather events on the future distribution of fruit bats in Australia

AimFruit bats (Megachiroptera) are important pollinators and seed dispersers whose distribution might be affected by climate change and extreme-weather events. We assessed the potential impacts of those changes, particularly more frequent and intense heatwaves, and drought, on the future distribution of fruit bats in Australia. We also focus a case study on Tasmania, the southernmost island state of Australia, which is currently devoid of fruit bats but might serve as a future climate refugium. LocationAustralia (continental-scale study) and Tasmania. MethodsSpecies distribution modelling was used to predict the occurrence of seven species of fruit bats, using an ensemble of machine-learning algorithms. Predictors included extreme-weather events (heatwave and drought), vegetation (as a proxy for habitat) and bioclimatic variables. Predictions were made for the current-day distribution and future (2050 and 2070) scenarios using multiple emission scenarios and global circulation models. ResultsChanges in climate and extreme-weather events are forecasted to impact all fruit-bat species, with the loss and gain of suitable areas being predominantly along the periphery of a species current distribution. A higher emission scenario resulted in a higher loss of areas for Grey-headed flying fox (Pteropus poliocephalus) and Spectacled flying fox (P. conspicillatus) but a higher gain of areas for the Northern blossom bat (Macroglossus minimus). The Grey-headed flying fox (Pteropus poliocephalus) is the only study species predicted to potentially occur in Tasmania under future scenarios. Main conclusionsFruit bats are likely to respond to climate change and extreme weather by migrating to more suitable areas, including regions not historically inhabited by those species such as Tasmania--possibly leading to human-wildlife conflicts. Conservation strategies (e.g., habitat protection) should focus on areas we found to remain suitable under future scenarios, and not be limited by state-political boundaries.