The Past, Present and Future of Elephant Landscapes in Asia

Abstract

Habitat loss drives species declines worldwide, but is seldom quantified over centennial timescales. We constructed ecological niche models for Asian elephants based on land-use change between 850-2015, and predictions under six different climate/socioeconomic scenarios from 2015-2099. We find that over 64% of suitable natural habitat across diverse ecosystems was lost over the past three centuries. Average patch size dropped 83% from approximately 99,000 km2 to 16,000 km2 and the area occupied by the largest patch decreased 83% from ~ 4 million km2 (45% of area) to 54,000 km2 (~7.5% of area). Over half of current elephant range appears unsuitable. Habitat availability is predicted to decline further this century across all scenarios. The most severe losses occur under RCP3.4-SSP4, representing mid-range emissions but high regional inequities. We conclude that climate change mitigation measures must include policies to ensure inter-regional socioeconomic equity to safeguard landscapes for elephants, humans, and other species.