Climate change drives northward range shifts in invasive forest pests and pathogens

Invasive tree pests and pathogens are increasingly threatening forests worldwide. Understanding how a warming climate and changing precipitation patterns will affect the future distribution ranges of these pathogenic species requires systematic analysis across a variety of host trees and pathogenic species. We analysed 31 major tree pests and pathogens that have caused widespread and extensive damage globally, predicting their current and future distribution under various climate change scenarios using species distribution modelling. Our results showed that tree pests and pathogens will consistently shift northward, threatening northern temperate and boreal forests between the years 2041 and 2080. On the other hand, some warmer regions, including southern Europe, were expected to experience fewer pest and pathogen outbreaks in the future. Annual mean temperature, mean temperature of the warmest quarter, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and precipitation of the driest month contributed to the species distribution models, indicating that warming temperatures and moderate precipitation may promote the survival, reproduction, and spread of the pathogenic agents. Our research highlights the need for enhanced monitoring, early pest and pathogen detection, stricter biosecurity measures, and improved silvicultural strategies in temperate and boreal forests in the northern hemisphere. Moreover, forest assessments, including those focused on carbon budgets, biodiversity, and ecosystem services, should account for the effects of tree pests and pathogen outbreaks, as they may drastically alter future functioning of forests globally.