Model-assisted high-throughput phenotyping of photosynthetic acclimation

Photosynthesis is a key determinant of crop productivity, yet conventional gas-exchange measurements are labor-intensive and unsuitable for high-throughput assessment of dynamic photosynthetic acclimation across large genotype panels. Consequently, genetic variation in photosynthetic acclimation remains poorly characterized and difficult to exploit in breeding programs. Here we present a computational pipeline that integrates rapid optical sensing (chlorophyll meters and hyperspectral reflectance) with a mechanistic model of photosynthetic protein-turnover to estimate dynamic nitrogen allocation among photosynthetic components. The pipeline was demonstrated using 60 winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars sampled at 10 time points spanning leaf emergence to senescence. Uncertainties associated with each pipeline component were quantified and benchmarked against gas-exchange ground-truth measurements under three controlled-environment light and temperature regimes. Dynamic nitrogen allocation to light harvesting, electron transport, and carboxylation was characterized using three biologically interpretable parameters: maximum synthesis rate, degradation rate, and age-dependent decline in synthesis. Although hyperspectral models showed moderate predictive accuracy for photosynthetic capacity, prediction errors were predominantly random, allowing robust parameter estimation when observations across the leaf lifespan were integrated. The pipeline successfully resolved genotype-by-environment interactions in photosynthetic acclimation, with environmental and interaction effects contributing more strongly than genotype main effects to nitrogen dynamics. These results demonstrate a scalable, uncertainty-aware sensor-to-trait architecture for dynamic physiological phenotyping that enables high-throughput germplasm screening across diverse environments and provides novel physiological selection targets for improving crop adaptation under variable climates.