Selection and Biodiversity change

There is a great need to understand how and why biodiversity, which we define as the variety of organisms found in a given place, changes over time. Current estimates suggest strikingly slow change in traditional measures of biodiversity. These estimates seem to contradict rapid shifts in the abundance of individual species and have led to a rethinking of the mechanisms shaping biodiversity. Conceptual models emphasize the role of competition among species or, more recently, selection on species identity (i.e. selection that favors some species at the expense of others). However, it is difficult to quantify how these mechanisms contribute to biodiversity change. To illustrate this point we present cases where strong competition or selection on species identity leads to no biodiversity change. In view of this disconnect we develop a new approach to studying biodiversity change using the Price equation. We show that biodiversity change responds to selection on species rarity, rather than to either competition or selection on species identity. We then show how this insight can be used to quantify the effects of the mechanisms previously thought to influence biodiversity: 1) selection, 2) (ecological) drift, 3) immigration and 4) speciation. Our results suggest the connection between species fates and their rarity is fundamental to understanding biodiversity change.