Alpine marmot (Marmota marmota) pups emerge increasingly earlier with the ongoing climate change

Abstract

Advance in the phenology of plants and animals is a widely observed response to climate change. The magnitude of the observed changes is, however, very variable across species. Several biological factors could influence the strength of the phenological advances, including lifestyle. Hibernation has evolved in response to harsh environmental conditions and could, hence, potentially buffer organisms against changing climatic conditions. In the Alps, the alpine marmot hibernates for almost 6 months. During that time individuals are sheltered from cold and lack of food, so we could expect alpine marmots to be less responsive to earlier springs than non-hibernating mountain-dwelling species. Here we investigate temporal variation in the date at which pups emerge from their natal burrow for the first time. Using quantile regressions, we provide clear evidence of an earlier pup emergence between 1990 and 2023. Over the study period, the predicted change is of about 4.7 days. In particular, late emergence dates are becoming especially rare over time. Our findings are in line with previous work on other mountain species, which suggests a general advance in reproductive phenology among the organisms living in Alps. The rate of change of pup emergence dates over years is, however, weaker in the alpine marmot than in most other mammalian species studied so far.