Quantifying genetic, environmental and individual stochastic variability in Plantago lanceolata

Abstract

Predicting ecological and evolutionary population dynamics requires understanding how genetic and environmental parameters influence variation in survival and reproduction among individuals. However such a focus often neglects the stochastic events that individuals experience throughout their lives that also influence survival and reproduction. With an illustrative example, we quantify and illustrate the influence of such non-selective demographic variability on population dynamics using size-structured matrix models of an experimental population of Plantago lanceolata. Our analysis shows that variation in survival and reproduction among individuals explained by environment, genes, and their interaction was modest compared to the stochastic variation in lifespan and reproduction. We illustrate how expectations on population growth, based on expected lifetime reproduction and generation time, can be misleading when variance in reproduction among individuals of the same genotype (full sibs) was large. Such large within genotype variance can lower population growth, fitness. Our results accompany recent investigations that call for more focus on stochastic variation in survival and reproduction, rather than dismissal of this variation as uninformative noise.