Taxon cycles in Neotropical mangroves

The concept of taxon cycle involves successive range expansions and contractions over time through which a species can indefinitely maintain its core distribution. Otherwise, it becomes extinct. Taxon cycles have been defined mostly for tropical island faunas, examples from continental areas are scarce and similar case studies for plants remain unknown. Most taxon cycles have been identified on the basis of phylogeographic studies, and straightforward empirical evidence from fossils is lacking. Here, empirical fossil evidence is provided for recurrent Eocene to present expansion/contraction cycles in a mangrove taxon (Pelliciera), after a Neotropical-wide study of the available pollen records. This recurrent behavior is compatible with the concept of taxon cycle from biogeographical, chronological and ecological perspectives. The biotic and abiotic drivers potentially involved in the initiation and maintenance of the Pelliciera expansion/contraction cycles are analyzed, and the ecological and evolutionary implications are discussed. Whether this could be a trend toward extinction is considered under the predictions of the taxon cycle theory. The recurrent expansion and contraction cycles identified for Pelliciera have strong potential for being the first empirically and unequivocally documented taxon cycles and likely the only taxon cycles documented to date for plants.