Identifying Priority Landscapes for Conservation of Snow Leopards in Pakistan

Abstract

Pakistans total estimated snow leopard habitat is about 80,000 km2 of which about half is considered prime. However, this preliminary demarcation was not always in close agreement with the actual distribution--the discrepancy may be huge at the local and regional level. Recent technological developments like camera trapping and molecular genetics allow for collecting reliable presence records that could be used to construct realistic species distribution based on empirical data and advanced mathematical approaches like MaxEnt. Current study followed this approach to construct accurate distribution of the species in Pakistan. Moreover, movement corridors, among different landscapes, were also identified through the circuit theory. The habitat suitability map, generated from 384 presence points and 28 environmental variables, scored the snow leopards assumed range in Pakistan, from 0 to 0.97. A large shear of previously known range represented low-quality habitat, including areas in lower Chitral, Swat, Astore and Kashmir. Conversely, Khunjerab, Misgar, Chapursan, Qurumber, Broghil, and Central Karakoram represented high-quality habitats. Variables with higher contribution in the MaxEnt model were precipitation of driest month (34%), annual mean temperature (19.5%), mean diurnal range of temperature (9.8%), annual precipitation (9.4%) and river density (9.2). The validation texts suggest a good model fit, and strong prediction power. The connectivity analysis revealed that the population in the Hindukush landscape appears to be more connected with the population in Afghanistan as compared to other populations in Pakistan. Similarly, the Pamir-Karakoram population is better connected with China and Tajikistan, while the Himalayan population was with the population in India. Current study allows for proposing three model landscapes to be considered under GSLEP agenda as regional priority areas, to safeguard safeguard future of the species in the long run. These landsacpes fall in mountain ranges of the Himalaya, Hindu Kush and Karakoram-Pamir, respectively. We also identified gaps in existing protected areas network, and suggest new protected areas in Chitral and Gilgit-Baltistan to protect critical habitats of snow leopard in Pakistan.