Estimating the Total Variance Explained by Whole-Brain Imaging for Zero-inflated Outcomes

Zero-inflated outcomes are very common in behavioral data, particularly for responses to psychological questionnaires. Modeling these challenging distributions is further exacerbated by the absence of established statistical models capable of characterizing total signals attributed to whole-brain imaging features, making the accurate assessment of brain-behavior relationships particularly formidable. Given this critical need, we have developed a novel variational Bayes algorithm that characterizes the total signal captured by whole-brain imaging features for zero-inflated outcomes . Our zero-inflated variance (ZIV) estimator robustly estimates the fraction of variance explained (FVE) and the proportion of non-null effects from large-scale imaging data. In simulations, ZIV outperformed other linear prediction algorithms. Applying ZIV to data from one of the largest neuroimaging studies, the Adolescent Brain Cognitive DevelopmentSM (ABCD) Study, we found that whole-brain imaging features have a larger FVE for externalizing compared to internalizing behavior. We also demonstrate that the ZIV estimator, especially applied to focal sub-scales, can localize key neurocircuitry associated with human behavior.